Navigating the complexities of a changing Syria

Following the momentous fall of the Assad regime there has been joy, hope, sadness and apprehension about the future. How do we navigate the complexities of a changing Syria?

We have seen momentous change in the Middle East. A tyrant regime has fallen in Syria after more than half a century of oppression and thirteen years of bloodshed.

There has been joy tinged with sadness; hope alongside fears for the future; and for those of us some distance away there has also been confusion.

How do we best understand and navigate these complexities?

In terms of joy and sadness, human emotion has been understandably mixed. The immense celebration at the fall of the Assad regime has been welcome - though tinged with sadness over personal losses as well as the exposure of the sheer horror and brutality of the past few decades.

Nonetheless we must be grateful to Allah for letting us witness the end of this tyranny, demonstrating that He (سُبْحَانَهُ وَتَعَالَىٰ) can bring His Help swiftly and unexpectedly. That is an important lesson.

Those of us who see human existence as both this world and the Next, know that loss - whether in terms of life or homes - is never in vain.

Allah says:

(Surah Aal Imran 3:195)

So their Lord responded to them: “I will never deny any of you—male or female—the reward of your deeds. Both are equal in reward. Those who migrated or were expelled from their homes, and were persecuted for My sake and fought and ˹some˺ were martyred—I will certainly forgive their sins and admit them into Gardens under which rivers flow, as a reward from Allah. And with Allah is the finest reward!” (Surah Aal Imran 3:195)

In terms of hopes and fears, the positivity in seeing the ‘end of the old system’, more than thirteen years after the start of the Arab spring does bring hope. But it is mixed with fear of seeing a repeat of what happened in Egypt, Tunisia, where the changes were stolen - or what happened in Libya, where civil war was stoked.

Those fears of real change risked being stolen are very real. But just because corrupt people or colonial states and their regional proxies try to steal things, it doesn’t make their success inevitable.

The hope is kindled by those good measures by those in power in Damascus to build reconciliation, as they are based on Islam - though it would be sad if actions from the political sunnah of the Messenger of Allah (صلى الله عليه و سلم) were promoted as a way to build a ‘national’ unity in the nation-state of Syria.

This hope is also stimulated by sensing the Help from Allah - though it is hard to say there is ‘victory’ while there is an ongoing genocide in Gaza - and that Al Masjid al Aqsa, Al Quds Sharīf and the rest of occupied Palestine remains enslaved and occupied.

The positives that we might have seen from the new regime are tempered by apprehension in seeing the way it has been promoted in the west - in stark contrast to how the rebel groups were described before and how they are described in the context of Palestine. Also, by sensing the hand of Erdogan behind recent events - for a man who has betrayed Gaza, Palestine and, until this month, betrayed Syria cannot be trusted. Everything he has done in relation to these two conflicts has stayed within US policy for the region. This has been reinforced by the reports of deals done by geopolitical players behind the scenes, all suggesting that colonial powers and their regional proxies have a desire for the Middle East which is not in the interests of its people.

A Muslim should, in origin, think the best of another Muslim - and make excuses for them if they see concerning things, and not be suspicious about their motives or actions. But let us be realistic about politics, so that we are not repeatedly bitten from the same hole. The default position of trust for Muslim towards another Muslim is not the position once you have witnessed evidence of betrayal in the past - or open fisq (wrongdoing) or ẓulm (injustice) - such as imprisoning political critics & torturing them. In such situations the default position of trust no longer applies. Rather, the position is that that person or groups who have cast doubt on their own integrity have to prove & justify what they say and do by their actions and evidence over a sustained period of time.

So my suggestions for a good approach for us to take to navigate these complexities, as Muslims watching from afar are:

To be grateful to Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَتَعَالَىٰ) for witnessing His Help and to draw closer to Him.

To be happy in the happiness of the good people of Bilād al Shām. We support the people, not one group or another, or one man or another.

To scrutinise what is to follow and not be afraid of criticising what is wrong, or to expose what is dangerous and warn people accordingly.

We need to see an end the era of silent subservience in the Muslim world - AND for those of us living distantly, we need to see end the era of being distant ‘fan-boys’ of those rules who say Islamic things, but have un-Islamic policies.

We do not want more fighting and conflict. That is not what Syria or the Muslim world needs - between rival militias, or across sectarian divides - usually stoked externally for the benefit of colonial powers, hoping to maintain their grip on the region.

We do want a culture of enjoining good and forbidding evil towards rulers and exposing dangerous agendas of the colonial powers in regard to the Muslim world - whether by a direct hand or via their regional proxies.

Those who say we should not have unreasonable expectations of a new regime are not wrong. Syria has had thirteen years of turmoil and war, and decades of oppressive rule, not to mention degrading of its military capability by the Zionist aggressors.

But those who use this as an excuse to lower peoples’ horizons are problematic. Or who say that we should not be talking about an Islamic future for Bilād al Shām or Khilāfah as an aspiration at this time.

They are wrong in terms of the blessed nature of the originally-peaceful uprising since 2011, because that was in very large part, Islamic.

The people of Syria did not just chant Al Shab yureed isqaat al nidham (the people want a change of the system), they also chanted ‘Qa’idna lil abad, Sayyiduna Muhammad’ (our leader for ever is Sayyiduna Muhammad (صلى الله عليه و سلم). )

They are wrong geopolitically, because the region was divided in 1918 after World War One, and none of these weak artificial proxy nation states can be truly independent unless and until we see a reversal of that division. That is the real system that needs changing.

And they are wrong spiritually, because the Quran tells us that when Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَتَعَالَىٰ) Helped Bani Israel by defeating Firawn and his armies - the same Bani Israel were condemned to wander in the wilderness for decades when they turned away from the path of Allah after His Help came, so delaying victory.

Our duty as Muslims who are far away is to call for what pleases Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَتَعَالَىٰ) and His Messenger (صلى الله عليه و سلم), and warn again that which displeases them.

May Allah save the people of Bilād al Shām from that, and from the waswasa (whispering) of the Shayatīn from amongst men and jinn, who try to deviate them from their original aims and aspirations. For Help is Help is from Allah alone, not from the regime in the secular Turkish state, or the UN or international community -and certainly not from the USA, EU or UK, who all colluded against the Syrian people for so long.

Abdul Wahid has been active in Muslim affairs in the UK for over 25 years. He has been published on the websites of Foreign Policy, Open Democracy, the Times Higher Educational Supplement, and Prospect Magazine. You can follow him on X/Twitter @AbdulWahid_X.